Clive Maund

Silver continues to put in a laggardly performance relative to gold, but this is not a cause for concern, it is normal at this stage in the cycle, and it gives would be investors in the sector more time to position themselves.

Gold is now a major bullmarket as evidenced by its strong breakout from a giant 6-year long base pattern in August. The larger trend is up. We had thought that it might react back closer to the breakout point before turning higher again, but it didn’t, and started higher again in recent days over the Christmas period. This is a sign of greater strength.

Charts are suggesting that gold and silver are close to completing giant bottoming patterns that started to form (in the case of gold) as far back as 2013.

In recent weeks we have been wary that, despite highly favorable COTs and Hedgers charts and rotten sentiment indicators etc, a general asset liquidation might drag the PM sector even further down, but Thursday’s extraordinarily positive action by the sector serves to allay those fears.

We are now seeing an overwhelming body of evidence coming together to suggest that gold and silver have hit bottom, and that even if they haven't, the bottom is very close and downside risk is very limited.

Gold is actually at a good point to turn up here, as it is close to a zone of support which is underpinned by the rising 200-day moving average in quite close proximity. This looks like a pretty good point to undertake more accumulation.

A major new silver bullmarket looks imminent that is expected to kick off with a dramatic spike, due to a wave of panic short covering.

Although we cannot reconcile this positive dollar outlook for the medium-term (long-term outlook remains bearish) with a positive outlook for the Precious Metals sector, there are times when the dollar and gold and silver rally together.

Gold continues to build towards its breakout from a massive 4-year long base pattern. This is likely to occur when the dollar breaks down from its topping pattern, and is expected to lead to a bullmarket that will dwarf the last one from 2001 through 2011, and may be given a tailwind when the cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme implodes.

The latest extremely bullish COT charts are not negated by the dollar being oversold here and some of its indicators looking positive. The bigger picture is that the dollar may be headed for a breakdown and severe decline or even a crash.