There's one certain winner of next week's presidential election, according to HSBC Holdings Plc: investors in gold.
Although they deem a Donald Trump victory more supportive for the price of the metal than a win by Hillary Clinton, the bank's Chief Precious Metals Analyst James Steel says it'll enjoy at least a 8 percent jump whoever wins the race.
Both candidates have espoused trade policies that could stimulate demand, with gold offering a potential "protection against protectionism," he says. Even the relatively more internationalist Democratic candidate has argued for the renegotiation of longstanding free-trade agreements. That's positive for gold — even if "not on the scale of Mr Trump’s agenda."
If the real-estate magnate triumphs, gold could rise to $1,500 an ounce, according to HSBC, up from around $1,289 at 10:55 a.m. in New York.
If Clinton wins, the price of the metal could improve to $1,400 an ounce by year end, Steel writes, adding that a Democratic sweep of Congress would further stoke demand for the metal owing to a possible boost in fiscal spending. Clinton's not alone in having suggested stimulus through channels outside of monetary policy, with Trump at one point saying he would put at least half a trillion dollars to work.
James Butterfill, head of research and investment strategy at ETF Securities, echoed HSBC in predicting gold prices may rise as much as 10 percent within a year of a Trump administration, stimulated by policy uncertainty and the prospect of rising inflation, given the Republican candidate's broadsides against the independence of the Federal Reserve.
"Gold is seen as a hedge against political uncertainty, and President Trump would bring more political unpredictability than any president for generations, particularly over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s leadership and monetary policy strategy," he wrote in a recent note.
Shifts in the partisan affiliation of the Presidency have historically had a positive impact on bullion, while it tends to perform poorly when there is no change in administration, the analyst notes, after observing gold-price swings that followed the 22 presidential elections since 1928.
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