By Hugo Salinas Price
Once again, I turn over in my mind the Chinese plan regarding their imported oil, which consists in convincing their oil suppliers to accept yuan in payment (and thus re-directing their sales outside the orbit of the US dollar) with an additional sweetener in case the oil exporters do not wish to hold assets denominated in yuan: the sweetener consists in offering to exchange the yuan received by the oil exporters, for gold purchased on the world markets – and not out of Chinese reserves.
Again, I mention that for the first time in 46 years – ever since that fateful date, August 15th, 1971, when Nixon took the US “off gold” – gold is once again mentioned as part of a commercial deal – and one of great importance.
“There is more than one way to skin a cat” says an old proverb. And there is another way to bring the US to its knees, besides using hydrogen bombs or EMPs.
If the US cannot stop China from implementing its “oil – for yuan – for gold” program, then the fate of the US is at hand.
Once the oil exporters accept the deal, they will all be permanently caught. The price of gold will begin to rise, and rise and rise as more and more oil income is exchanged for gold. Thus, the gold income received from prior oil sales will become much more valueable for the oil exporters. I do not see the price of oil going up in terms of yuan. The first sellers of oil to China in exchange for yuan, and then exchangeable for gold, will get a lot of gold for their oil. As the scheme progresses, the oil exporters will get progressively smaller amounts of gold for their oil.
As gold commences a historic rise, the dollar will suffer a historic decline in acceptability, because higher gold means a lower dollar – more dollars will be needed to purchase gold.
Here I pose a question: once the oil exporters get a good deal, receiving gold for their exports to China, what will the other major exporters of commodities to China be thinking? Think of iron ore, copper and all the other commodities that make up the recently recorded $1.817 Trillion of yearly imports by China.
I think we can expect that other exporters to China will also want to get in on the deal – their commodities sold to China for gold – not dollars. The sooner they decide to ask for this, the more gold they will receive, initially.
It may be that we are on the verge of a monetary revolution in the world. One which will end the predominance of the US dollar, and with it, its world empire. The dollar may swiftly become worthless in terms of gold. As a world power, the US would be effectively castrated.
All the countries that hold US dollars as Reserves will be aghast as they see the value of their Reserves collapse in terms of gold. Too late, they will hasten to acquire more gold for their Reserves, adding to the rush for gold.
The implications I see for the Chinese move are vast. We may witness the return of the gold standard, not as we had imagined, but simply as the result of a spontaneous turn to gold as a means of trade initiated by the Chinese measure.
Practically all of us, who are aware of the disastrous consequences of abandoning gold as the world’s money, brought about by Nixon’s decision to suspend redemption of dollars held abroad for US gold at $35 dollars an ounce, have thought that it would require a conference of the Great Powers to come to an agreement to restore the gold standard. That has been a forlorn hope, increasingly so in recent years.
After the fact, it may become clear that the only route to a return to gold as the world’s money had to be through a decisive action on the part of a single entity. In this case, by China’s decision to bait the yuan hook offered to the oil exporters, with a gold worm.